Blue Dot News

One story a day from the frontier of human knowledge.

Earth Science ·

Earth Science

Subsidence more than doubles sea-level rise today along densely populated coasts

A new study reveals that subsidence is driving nearly twice as much sea-level rise as previously thought, threatening densely populated coastal cities.

Illustration: Blue Dot News

1 min read

In a world where the sea level has been rising at an alarming rate, scientists have long struggled to accurately measure its impact on our coastlines. Despite knowing that subsidence - the sinking of land into the ocean - plays a significant role in this process, there was still low confidence in estimates of how much land is moving and how it affects sea levels.

But now, researchers have made a breakthrough by combining diverse data sets to better understand subsidence patterns around the globe. This new work brings together almost 65% of the world's coastal population under one roof, providing a more complete picture of these complex issues. And what they've found is that the average rate of sea level rise experienced by people living near the coast is much higher than previously thought.

This discovery matters because it highlights just how critical it is to accurately measure and understand subsidence in densely populated areas. With 71% of the global coastal population living in regions where land is sinking, these findings provide crucial insights for risk assessment and adaptation efforts. By shedding light on this often-overlooked aspect of sea level rise, scientists can help us better prepare for the challenges ahead.

The people behind the work

  • Oelsmann J et al.

    Author

    Published in Nature communications

Source: Nature communications

Sources & Verification

Every statement in this story is drawn from the facts below. Each is linked to a primary or reputable source — follow any citation to check it for yourself.

  1. Despite its strong influence on relative sea-level (RSL) rise, there is still low confidence in estimates of vertical land motion (VLM) and its contribution to RSL change. Nature communications
  2. To address this problem, we synergize diverse VLM data, which now cover almost 65% of the coastal population, and are key to resolve small scale subsidence, including East, South, and Southeast Asian cities and populated deltaic regions, largely not covered by earlier geodetic measurements. Nature communications
  3. We find that the average modern (1995-2020) global RSL rise experienced by coastal populations (6 mm/year) is about twice the climate-driven absolute sea-level rise. Nature communications
  4. This reflects a strong tendency for higher rates of subsidence in densely populated areas, with 71% of the global coastal population living in subsiding regions. Nature communications
  5. Paired with community efforts to extend consistent observations, these data are essential to ensure reliable estimates of present and future RSL rise to support risk and adaptation assessment. Nature communications

Part of the Blue Dot News 2026 retrospective — an archive reconstructed automatically from the published scientific record. The science is real and cited above; this is not original daily reporting, and it is deliberately kept out of the live news feed.

← All stories